Are Families Moving to Oklahoma?

June 30, 2010

By J. Scott Moody and Wendy P. Warcholik

Three months ago in these pages ("Voting with Their Feet," April 2010) we looked at Oklahoma's migration patterns and found that, since 2005, significantly more people are moving into Oklahoma than are moving out. Chart 1 shows that since 2005 Oklahoma has gained nearly 56,000 new residents from out of state.

Unfortunately, the data do not provide any information as to the characteristics of these new residents. Are they empty-nesters moving to retire in Oklahoma? Are they young families moving for a better lifestyle (jobs, affordable housing, good education, etc.)? The answer is important because an influx of empty-nesters has much less of a long-term economic impact than would an influx of families.

Fortunately, however, the Census Bureau does produce a number of complementary data sets that can be used to shed light on this question.

The first place to look for answers is the change in population by age cohort. Chart 2 and Table 1 show the yearly percentage change of four age cohorts using an index value starting in 2000. The most striking feature in the chart can be seen in the "under 18 years" and "25 to 44 years" age cohorts.

Between 2000 and 2005, the "under 18" age cohort lost 7,968 people while the "25 to 44" age cohort lost 42,890 people. Then, remarkably, between 2005 and 2009 those same age cohorts gained people-with the "under 18" age cohort adding 34,923 people and the "25 to 44" age cohort adding 27,784 people.

What may explain this dramatic shift? Clearly, the sudden surge of in-migrants after 2005 was a major factor. Put simply, families from other states are moving to Oklahoma for a better lifestyle. As we showed in April, many of these in-migrants are coming from California, where raising a family is significantly harder to do than it is in Oklahoma (with its lower taxes, more affordable housing, and so on).

Moreover, there is another piece of evidence which suggests many of these in-migrants are families: a spiking birth rate. Naturally, the decision to have children is a major life event which then leads to other changes, including relocation. A young couple may not be a "family" prior to relocation, but may become one shortly thereafter. Also, small families may become larger families. In either case, changes in the birth rate can be an important telltale sign.
And indeed this is in this case. As shown in Chart 3, since the post-2005 surge of in-migrants, Oklahoma's birth rate has spiked to a new level. Between 2000 and 2005, new births averaged 50,671. Between 2006 and 2009, the average of new births jumped to 54,079-an average of 3,408 more births per year. Clearly the birth rate was getting an assist from the additional 27,784 people in the "24 to 44" age cohort, contributing to the 34,923 people in the "under 18" age cohort.

Overall, the evidence, while circumstantial, strongly points to families as being a significant share of 56,000 new Oklahoma residents since 2005. This is good news for Oklahoma's economy, especially considering it helped to reverse a disturbing decline in the "under 18" and "24 to 45" age cohorts prior to 2005. Policymakers should keep these facts in mind when considering any policies which would adversely affect Oklahoma's reputation regarding taxes, affordable housing, and a job-friendly business climate.

Economists J. Scott Moody (M.A., George Mason University) and Wendy P. Warcholik (Ph.D., George Mason University) are OCPA research fellows.

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