The expansion of Medicaid under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act – also known as “Obamacare” – that will expand eligibility to everyone with an income up to 138 percent (133 percent plus a 5 percent income disregard) of the federal poverty level (FPL) will have a devastating impact on the state budget, according to new research released by OCPA today. Our research projects the expansion will increase Medicaid enrollment to 36 percent of the population by 2023 and will add an additional $11.4 billion to state program expenditures during the first 10 years (2014-23) after the law goes into effect. Even without Obamacare, state spending on Oklahoma’s Medicaid program is projected to rise far beyond sustainable limits. State Medicaid expenditures have grown 165 percent since 2000, with the state spending approximately $1.1 billion on the program in 2010; this historical growth trend suggests the state’s share of program funding will be approximately $2 billion by 2014 and will be $32.3 billion between 2014-23, even without accounting for the expansion required under the health reform law. Total state spending on Medicaid under the Obamacare expansion is projected to be $43.7 billion between 2014-23.

State expenditure growth for Medicaid is already unsustainable; Obamacare will almost certainly bring the state to the brink of fiscal ruin.